The Australian dollar has fallen on exchange rate markets on Wednesday 15th August. According to analysts at Barclays, "AUD/USD led losses within the G10 group, trading at its lowest level since January-17."
Exchange Rates UK Research Desk delivers you a roundup of currency views, insights and analysis for the Swiss Franc, British Pound, US, Australian & Canadian Dollars
Swiss Franc currency a safe haven once more
The Swiss Franc continues to gain against the Euro, as risk sentiment and some struggles in Europe continue to push the CHF higher and the EUR faces considerable downward selling pressure now that EUR/USD has pushed through 1.15. Forex analysts at SwissQuote now believe that the Franc has regained its appeal as a haven, particularly as troubles in Italy have returned to the headlines over breaches of Eurozone deficit spending rules under the new populist government,
“The CHF title of safe-haven currency marginally eroded as geopolitical and trade tensions had limited effect on investor’s appetite for CHF. CHF become regionalized becoming the safe haven choice during rising European risks. This new reality was highlighted by CHF strengthening during Italian elections. The concentration of European centric risk in the current environment has sent EURCHF down to 113.98. The SNB has never drop its communication of standing ready to intervene in the currency markets if necessary. We doubt the SNB will stand in front of a European crisis to secure CHF just it does bring up the question of where the SNB pain threshold (112, 110, etc).”
Danske Bank: Hard to justify move higher in Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rates
The British Pound has been able to steady against the Euro but the US Dollar has been far more difficult a foe to overcome, particularly as EUR/USD has been on a sharp downward trend. The problems for the Pound have been put on the backburner of late however as Italy and Turkey have subdued the common currency. Analysts at Danske Bank believe the Pound is unlikely to rally given that investors are still too hawkish on interest rates,
“The move lower in EUR/GBP was mainly driven by the downward pressure on EUR/USD though, and we still think it is too early to call for a stabilisation in GBP risk premium.
Market pricing of future BoE rate hikes is still a bit on the hawkish side, in our view, suggesting that it would be difficult to justify a strong rally in GBP driven by strong data and higher interest rates in the UK in the short term.”
ING: Australian Dollar (AUD) exchange rate at risk of moving beneath 0.72
The Australian Dollar continues to struggle as the risk environment deteriorates for the commodity trade-reliant Aussie. Problems between the US and China are a major concern for the RBA, keeping them dovish, but the Turkish crisis is now an additional obstacle for the sensitive Australian Dollar. Forex strategists at ING believe that there is now a considerable risk of a bigger slide in AUD/USD now that 0.73 has given way and more selling has been triggered,
“In this global FX market turmoil, local AUD factors will have no material bearing on price action. With AUD/USD taking out the 0.73 support and broad-based EM FX weakness potentially weighing on global risk sentiment, we now see greater odds of a move below 0.72 (levels not seen since Dec 2016).
Unlike the RBNZ, the RBA kept a fairly neutral stance this week – although the central bank did downgrade its projected inflation profile. For what it’s worth, the week ahead sees 2Q wage data (Wed) and the Jul jobs report (Thu). We also get Governor Lowe’s semi-annual testimony to parliament (Fri).”
Citibank: USD/CAD exchange rate to drop to 1.25
The Canadian Dollar has been supported by some encouraging data of late. Employment and inflation have both beaten expectations, despite what might be some worrying conditions for trade. While NAFTA still hangs over the economy the CAD may continue to tread water, but the signs are pointing to some upside if these fears were to ease. Analysts at Citibank believe that the CAD will be poised to bounce if the BoC follow through on rate hikes,
“The BoC may hike the interest rate by 0.25% again in Oct. Currently, the market is not fully pricing in and there may be room for more to be priced. Oil price gains and potential USD mid-term weakness may support CAD. A significant risk to CAD remains NAFTA negotiations and trade tensions.0-3M forecast: 1.30; 6-12M forecast: 1.25.”
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Source : https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/22646/foreign-exchange-insights-in-the-swiss-franc-british-pound-us-australian--canadian-dollars.htmlThanks you for read my article Pound Bounces On Brexit News; Italian Politics Also On The Watchlist